MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Nationals vs. Phillies (Tuesday, Sept. 1)

Mitchell Layton and G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): Aaron Nola and Patrick Corbin.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds

Nationals Odds	+128 [Bet Now]
Phillies Odds	-148 [Bet Now]
Over/Under	8.5 (-115/-106) [Bet Now]
First Pitch	Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET

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Odds as of Monday at 11:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

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Tuesday’s Phillies vs. Nationals game features a heavyweight pitching matchup as Aaron Nola takes on Patrick Corbin. Both teams are at the bottom of NL East as we reach the halfway point in the season, so a win on Tuesday will be crucial if either team is going to make a run at a playoff spot.

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Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Nationals Probable Starter

Patrick Corbin, LHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Corbin has been solid through his six starts. He’s accumulated a 3.82 ERA and 3.50 xFIP and has been really effective with his slider, which has held hitters under a .200 wOBA and produced a 42.4% whiff rate.

However, Corbin has had some major issues with his fastball, to put in mildly. Opposing hitters have tagged it for a .487 wOBA and seven extra base hits. Corbin faced the Phillies six days ago and was lucky to walk away only allowing two runs; he gave up seven hits and two walks in six innings of work. I think the Phillies will capitalize this time around, given how good their lineup is against left-handed pitching.

Phillies Projected Lineup

The Phillies have been fantastic offensively to start the season. Philadelphia’s lineup boasts the fourth-best wOBA (.346) and fifth-best wRC+ (116) in MLB. Furthermore, the Phillies have been absolutely mashing left-handed pitchers. In 179 plate appearances, the Phillies have a .366 wOBA and 130 wRC+, both of which are significantly higher marks than their numbers against righties. Corbin has been solid so far, but navigating this Phillies lineup will be a tall task for the Nationals starter.

Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen hasn’t been great this season, posting an ERA over 5.00 and an xFIP over 4.50. Washington’s relievers have gotten even worse over the past week, posting a 5.81 ERA.

Projections and Pick

I think the Phillies will be able to get to Corbin this time around. I have Philadelphia projected for 5.01 runs on Tuesday, so I think there is value in taking their team total of over 4.5 runs at +102 (DraftKings) and I would play it up to -108.

Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (+102)

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